Data interpretation: November three weeks before the wholesale sales trend is strong, weekly average growth rate of 20% or more, retail driven by the wholesale, the first three weeks of growth rate of 13%, of which the third week to 17%. Looking forward to the fourth week, last year's growth rate of 10%, this year's growth rate is expected to reach 15-20%. November wholesale growth is expected to reach 18-20%, from the volume of the month of the wholesale volume of about 200 million, 1.7 million over the same period; retail growth rate of about 16%. November sales exceeded expectations due mainly to the policy overlay market. Policy, 1.6L and below the purchase price of half of the purchase price of half of the car market has a direct impact, and promote market differentiation, in October 1.6L and the following models than the chain growth rate of more than 16%, 1.6L above the chain growth was weak, November This situation may be more prominent. On the market side, the large snow and ice weather and fog haze weather in November in North China combined with the double eleven car showcased and the larger offer prompted consumers to buy enthusiasm and rigid demand release. Structure point of view, in November joint venture and own brands have a good performance, the main joint venture presented the situation at the end of the sprint, independent brands overall growth of 10 +%, the performance is better.
Passenger car market outlook: Experts believe that the normal level of 5-8 month growth rate of 9-10%, the stock market volatility led to the auto market growth rate and the expected difference of about 9 percentage points to the base of 500 million units, roughly 40-50 The amount of units is suppressed by the stock market. Stock market stabilized, the recovery of consumer funds in the state, consumers are expected to buy cars in 10-12 months, superimposed in November the weather is more harsh, pre-suppression of the effective release of demand, the overall growth rate is expected in the fourth quarter is better, manufacturers promotions + energy-saving car policy Exit + purchase tax incentives is expected to make 12 months of sales have increased significantly. Experts believe that 16 years of narrow passenger car sales growth is expected to slightly higher than 15 years, the main reasons include: 1, the stock market inhibition of consumption in the end of 15 and 16 years is expected to release; 2, 14 years of Hangzhou and Shenzhen, 3, the policy, fuel consumption policy, rewards and punishments system has no real impact, and the purchase tax policy is favorable. (3) policy, fuel consumption policy, reward and punishment system has no real impact, and the purchase tax policy is good. Experts predict that 16-year wholesale growth center in 9-10%, retail growth center in about 10%. 16 years of manufacturers to significantly increase or reduce the stock situation may not occur, retail and wholesale growth may be basically flat, taking into account the export may decline, wholesale growth may be slightly lower than the retail growth.
Investment Advice
We believe that a group of underestimated high-quality car blue-chip valuation has reflected the fundamentals of the bad, while the car terminal demand is better than the wholesale data, leading company financial statements better profitability is expected to invest poor, car stimulus policy The growth of the industry certainty. We recommend: 1, long-term growth stocks portfolio, recommended Fu Seiko Seiko, recommended to focus on Hong Kong stocks Geely Automobile; 2, absolute income and relative income combination, recommended to benefit from the light truck industry to improve supply, SUV product sales remain high, 15 years Flexible and large, the performance of the inflection point has been the JAC, performance growth is high certainty, low valuation, with a safe margin Weifu Hi-Tech, strategic positioning clear, customers gradually extended automotive electronics shares Jingwei shares, light truck industry leader, The development of SUV products is expected to open a new growth space Jiangling Motors, low PB, low PS, P / E reasonable future profitability of the large Chinese heavy truck, and underestimate the value of the luxury cars, Great Wall Motor, SAIC; 3, grasp the automotive industry Mergers and acquisitions brought about by the theme of investment opportunities, recommended FAW car.
risk warning
Expert opinion on behalf of their personal views, for reference only.